Curse

gotenks · Jan 15, 2006, 01:14 PM // 13:14

Factions is due in a few months, everyone is excited and rightly so. They all are expecting something better, more enjoyable than the origional game itself. Luxons and Kurzicks might be the factions in the upcoming expansion. But this game already has its share of factions. Its called the PvP and the PvE. Based on the current and past trends, I present an analysis to one of the many possible futures of guildwars.

If you look at the actual number of copies sold to the number of players still playing guildwars today, I would assume that roughly half have left the game and will either buy the expansion or wont. According to my personal experience a big number in this, who are currently dormant have only 1 or 2 level 20 characters on their account and most of them were never serious about PvP, most of these I am sure wont return to GW. A good number of them did PvP a lot and just left due to boredom or moved to a different game with their friends, these players will most likely return when expansion comes out.

Now lets look at the other half thats still active. I'd say that almost 90% people have played PvE chars at one point or another for unlocking skills or for just enjoying the game and then got into PvP. Only a few people who were used to playing games in an organised fashion(TS/Vent etc) were maybe in the other 10%. So a lot of people both PvE and PvP and a small amount proly only PvP or PvE. But almost all people who PvE exclusively and a sizable option that do both, have more than 1 account. Exclusive PvPers will almost certainly never buy another account, because of all the unlock/rank headaches.

With the current trend in Guildwars more and more people are going for PvP due to lack of stuff to do in PvE, some of these people will really start enjoying PvP cause it is a lot of fun and join the exclusive PvP/No second account group. So more and more people will go for PvP and many claim this is what arena net wants, right? Because Guildwars is not a RPG with the grind of levels and other stupid RPG stuff. I totally agree with these facts, the way the game has evolved and the way things are going to work in the expansion, its quite obvious that ultimately GW is going to be a PvP based game.

So where is the problem? This is the part that Anet should be worried about, its a possiblity imo, and would affect GW in a big way.

Factions comes out. 300 new skills, 1 or 2 slots for old players.. 4 for new ones. Level cap remains, this is enuff to turn off a few folks who were in GW for the character building aspect of it (PvE type character progression, not PvP type), so some customers lost here, but thats ok I guess cause they shudnt be playing guildwars anyway, for they misunderstood it as a common rpg. So letem go you say, what about the new missions/items/armor/skills and the new areas which would be awesome to look at. Most of the PvE/PvPers would buy atleast one copy to check it out, almost all PvP only guys will buy one copy. Some of the PvP/PvE guys realize the reason for level cap and would enjoy the expansion to ultimately join the PvP only section. But a lot of em will be dissapointed with the 1 character slot that comes from buying the expansion and will not upgrade their other accounts. They will also realize the fact that level cap, same armor/weapon stats are there to keep PvP balanced and the entire expansion is only a practice to enrich the PvP experience, with more skills/elites and classes. The things that make PvE are just a sideshow to all of this. So this PvP/PvE group will keep splitting into the PvP only people and those who will hesitantly buy the next expansion and quit after that.

But this is good you will say as ANET is getting a big PvP only base that are faithful and would buy every expansion that comes out. WRONG, the amount of people who wont expand their multiple accounts will already put a big dent in Anets profit. Those who buy one hesitantly and then quit will add to further losses. The poor Noobs who misunderstood GW and were dissatisfied with the Level cap are inevitable losses. But wait it gets worse, with more and more expansions coming out and lots of new skills, the PvP side will become more complex, thus making it harder for a new player to enter PvP. Look at the scenario at present, just go to tombs, I ask you what chance does a new player has of finding a team and actually enjoying the game? Look at it 3 expansions down the road, its going to be impossible for noobs, with only rank 15+ groups forming. The number of skills availible will be mind boggling. With all the PvE only players leaving and the PvP base growing, guildwars will already have a PvP based game tag on it. Anet will never even know what amount of potential customers it lost just because of that tag. They can try fixing the ranks, that will make PvP elites furious, some will drop out, causing more loss. In the end Anet will be left with a group of faithful PvPers who have paid for all the expansions of a non-subscription based game and would now like to enjoy it for as long as they want. The larger this crowd is, larger is the amount of money Anet will be spending to maintain the servers. If they make it subscription based, lot of poeple will leave. Those who will remain will rant endlessly about how anet went bad on their pact, affecting PR further.

No amount of publicity will fix this , because GW is already a popular game and 3 expansions down the line, the image that poeple will have about guildwars, will be permanent. Some people might argue that the PvP base will generate enough profit for Anet to make guildwars a success. Maybe, maybe not, but if they dont fix something that they know WILL cut down their profit margin, its not a sound business strategy imo. I hope they take some action to prevent this from happening. I can be a PvP'er or a PvE'er, my money is still in my pocket. They have to keep me happy if they want it

PS : The figures I have used might be inaccurate, but the general player behaviour based on what they do in GW is quite accurate, as reflected by many posts on these forums.

Optime · Jan 15, 2006, 01:17 PM // 13:17

I would just like to say, the game is getting increasingly bigger, and, according to Gaile, they hit the record for the number of people who were on just last Saturday.

However, I do see your point, people are leaving due to boredom and because they are running out of things to do in the gametypes they like to play.

Qealoth · Jan 15, 2006, 02:20 PM // 14:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by gotenks

Most of the PvE/PvPers would buy atleast one copy to check it out, almost all PvP only guys will buy one copy. Some of the PvP/PvE guys realize the reason for level cap and would enjoy the expansion to ultimately join the PvP only section.

i highly disagree with you in respect to almost all pvpers will only be buying one expansion. On the contrary most pvper will buy all expansion just to keep themselves versatile and open to new strategies and builds.

Quote:

Look at it 3 expansions down the road, its going to be impossible for noobs, with only rank 15+ groups forming. The number of skills availible will be mind boggling.

It took one year for people to get ~4664fame (rk9) and there is a huge gap to the next rank (20000) and even more for rank 15(100000fame) therefore it will be nearly impossible for the game to stagnate because pvpers all reached rk15 by the next 2/3 years

ignis · Jan 15, 2006, 02:26 PM // 14:26

I see your point, gotenks. if we leave Factions out of discussion for a second and look at the current situation, there's nothing optimistic to say.

I personally know a lot of people that quit GW simply because they were way too frustrated to continue playing. has it been the lack of things to do in PvE or the high skill requirements to compete in PvP - it's all the same. a lot of people quit because they lose interest.

I quit GW for two month this summer for this very reason. however, after I came back I found the game more interesting that it has been before. not because of the updates but because I looked at the game from a different angle.

as for Factions, I wouldn't make any predictions before it's out. we don't know what ANet are going to introduce in the upcoming chapter. it could well be something that will cause a lot of people who have given up on GW come back, we don't know.

all in all I think it's hard to make predictions just yet. I just hope this doesn't happen with chapter 2. I understand that this is inevitable in a MMO world such as Guild Wars, where everything is explorable and buyable, but deep inside me I hope this doesn't happen. I hope...

Klael · Jan 15, 2006, 02:50 PM // 14:50

That is one possbile outcome although it seems a little too grim.

Personally, chapter 2 will be a gauge of how much more I will be supporting the game. If it is more of the same, then chapter 2 will be my last chapter. There are a lot more interesting games coming out.

Regarding Gaile's assertion, the number could be including release in new regions. None of us will know whether its 100% or 50% truth or just PR speech. But really, take a look around yourself. Do you really feel that more people are logging on?

H2SO4 · Jan 15, 2006, 04:08 PM // 16:08

you have to look at it from joe bloggs' point of view.

I have 4 characters. 1 is lvl 20 all are pve.
Im at lv 18 with my current 'project' but after I get to lvl 20 and ascend and get my skills what else do I have to do except pvp ? theres no desire to go wasting 1 plat getting **EVERY** skill or elite. I can only use 1 at a time !!
FOW armour is impossible unless you farm which I find silly besides ele fow looks horrible. 15k is a possibility but do I really care so much about a slightly different looking set of armour ?

After lvl 20 with my elite & ascention & imbued and what ever what els is there to do except PvP ?? and unless I'm 'teh uber 1337 pwner' I'm wasting y time when I could be wanding about scratching myself...

GW needs to be fun !! it is fun but only if : you have missions to do or if yu are a good pvp - er (Im only rank 2)

Loviatar · Jan 15, 2006, 04:24 PM // 16:24

OP is a self proclaimed................

he has no information on how much additional PVE content is coming to make PVE players happy.

not all PVE players are reflex GRINDMONKEYS(from TGH) and anybody starting from chapter 1 with 2/3/4 chapters of added content is going to be busy for a long time.

GAILE has posted that the ONE SLOT that the OP (and others) are basing their facts on has not been decided yet.

as ALEX says until you hear it from us it is a rumor AND PROBABLY WRONG.

MAKE YOUR PREDICTIONS AFTER YOU HAVE SOME ACTUAL FACTS TO WORK WITH

Markaedw · Jan 15, 2006, 04:44 PM // 16:44

I think the one thing that will kill chapter 2 will be the level cap, not so much the we are capped but the monster aren't. One guy at work, who I consider at expert mesmer, quit because he objects to level 28 titans, and the stuff in the underworld, I kind of agree, but ofcourse we are smarter.

antialias02 · Jan 15, 2006, 06:36 PM // 18:36

I think one of the problems is that ANet decided to start listening to people's suggestsions - and so now everybody thinks that if they don't like a certain part of the game, it needs to be 'fixed' when there's really nothing very wrong with it at all.

I think that Factions is going to be excellent, and that much of the speculation in this thread is nonsense.

Deathqueen · Jan 15, 2006, 07:22 PM // 19:22

I agree with OP, I won't be buying FACTIONS upon release, I will wait for bargain bin price because of no increase in levels and only 1 for sure character slot. They aren't fooling me with this "hasn't been determined yet about more slots, this is just a scam to get people to preorder the game:. Anet doesn't appear to want to support the PVE players full force so why should I support them. I can be bored with the PVE game of the 1st edition as easily as the 2nd since the drop rates and gold drops are nill to none.

This game was fun when I started playing 7 months ago. Drop rates were nice and made adventuring fun. Now drop rates are pitiful. I just spent over SIX HOURS going from Camp Rankor to Beacons Perch and got ONE gold drop..a flippin superior rune of divine healing. A handful of purple drops THREE of crap and hardly any blues or whites worth mentioning. That's just pathetic. One of the hardest and LONGEST adventure paths in the whole game between towns and that's all I got for my WORK, forget adventure that was WORK to be able to make that path with henchies.

No increase in level cap. Confirmed by Gaile yesterday. Whoopie I certainly want to continue to play a level 20 for the rest of my life.

Then we get to the rank and fame system. You ever try to get into one of those HOH's groups if you're not in a guild and most especially if you don't have TS or VENT which is full of little kids blasting their sorry music over it or blabbering and being silly? (and even in a guild which I am that's getting about as hard also, everybody wants the ELITE and nobody wants to let a new player (you elitists call them noobs) into the groups). If they don't add rank and fame to 4x4 randoms and 4x4 team arenas this is just going to dwindle their population even more. Elitism has been the ruin of every pvp system I have seen and played in. As soon as a few people gain some ranks they start pushing those that have little or none out of the game.

They want people to come over to the PVP side, but, they are not giving them any incentive to do so with the method of rank and fame as it stands now. EVERYONE MUST be able to gain rank and fame from ANY FORM of PVP. This is the only way you will keep a large base of pvp players for longevity so just like a "casual" player in the pve game, there must be a way for the casual player of the pvp game to gain rank and fame of equal proportions. Don't push them aside and make 4x4 randoms and 4x4 teams your little romper room playgrounds. These also MUST give rank and fame.

As I said, I'll just wait on bargain bin pricing. The pvp game is ruined with each and every passing of the day as ranks to enter groups will just climb higher and higher. It's really wrong to push people aside just because you got there early and many probably even leeched a lot of their rank and fame, but, it's the ole bully on the block method and it will cause many people to quit and not purchase anymore expansions down the road and eventually may lead to the only remaining players having to finally PAY to play this silly game.

Loviatar · Jan 15, 2006, 07:31 PM // 19:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deathqueen

I
Whoopie I certainly want to continue to play a level 20 for the rest of my life.

.

it is not like they hid the level cap being the same from one chapter to the next.

THAT IS ONE OF THE MAIN SELLING POINTS OF THE GAME

that you wont have some little jerk (of any age) who spends 10 hours a day playing being a godley power with super uber ultra high level equipment simply swatting lower level people for the fun of it

you knew coming in the levels were not going up so you have no complaint there

Perishiko ReLLiK · Jan 15, 2006, 07:33 PM // 19:33

Your opinions are exactly that, opinions.

Sure, alot of people that dislike the pve and have forum access will complain. The only reason it seems like more is becaues they're loud about it.

You will hardly ever see people coming to a forum and going "Wow, i love this game!" Why? Because they're playing it and are content. If they had something to complain about, they could simply come to a forum.

Sorry, but instanced levels provide much less of a strain on the servers then completely persistant worlds. I do not see that as a problem. However, without a subscription based income, i don't see how they'll really get as much money as they may need in the future... but i'll leave that up to them... Some of them are the one's coming from battle.net and that was a non subscription game that still runs to this day with a great amount of fans.

I always saw guild wars as a very highly advanced diablo with a future intact.

Weezer_Blue · Jan 15, 2006, 07:41 PM // 19:41

Your entire post is filled with generalizations and fallacies. Every PvPer I care about is buying the expansion, as far as I know, simply so they are able to fight in new and improved ways using the new skills and classes to their advantage. No hardcore PvPer would be caught dead without a competitive edge.

And as for raising the level cap, it will simply not work. People seem to think "Grind = Content". But grind is just to cover up the lack of content. Lets look at chapter one, for instance: If you had a level cap of 50 by the end of the game, and everything in the desert was designed for a level ~20 player. Would you ever, under any circumstances, find the desert hard? Hell no. It would be as if you went back to presearing.

This thread gets my new and improved stamp of deproval:

Orbberius · Jan 15, 2006, 07:48 PM // 19:48

To the OP: I think you spent more time typing that out than thinking about what you are saying.

And good riddance to the players who are angry at not getting a level cap increase. Good effing riddance. The level cap is not going to rise, so just stop complaining and go play something else already. Leave the rest of us to enjoy the best RPG out there.

unienaule · Jan 15, 2006, 09:32 PM // 21:32

Speculation and flames. Closed.